Risk Analysis, Risk Management and Resilience in Agriculture - 3 ECTS

The farm sector is increasingly affected by a large set of shocks and risks, including volatile input and producer prices, extreme weather patterns, imbalances in upstream and downstream market power, increased dependency on financial institutions, and (geo)political uncertainty. The importance of risk management and resilience has therefore increased in recent revisions of the Common Agricultural Policy. This context of increased risk, highlights the importance of properly characterizing and analysing risk, the need for adaptive risk management tools, and novel ways of ensuring resilience of the agricultural sector.

Lecturers

• dr.ir. Yann de Mey (Associate Professor, Business Economics)
• prof.dr.ir. Miranda Meuwissen, (Professor in Business Economics)
• dr. Tobias Dalhaus (Associate Professor, Business Economics)

General information

Dates:	August 24-25, 2026
Contact person logistics	Marcella Haan
Contact person content:	Yann de Mey
Credits:	3 ECTS
Venue	Wageningen campus
Number of participants:	Minimum 10, maximum 20

Objectives

Participants will learn about and apply the major theories concerning risk analysis, risk coping strategies and resilience, and will be supported in developing their own research in topics related to risk in agriculture. The course deals with both conceptual and methodological issues, and presents various empirical applications with data and code.  

Target group and learning outcomes

The course is graduate-level, oriented towards PhD students, postdoctoral researchers and others with a background in agricultural and applied economics.

After successful completion of this course, students are expected to be able to:

• Understand theories underlying risk measurement, risk management decision making, and resilience.
• Critically assess econometric analyses with regards to risk and risk management.
• Undertake empirical projects on risk and resilience in agriculture.
• Reflect on current (EU) policy developments with regard to risk management and resilience.

Assumed prior knowledge:

Before the start of the course students are required to have a basic understanding of statistics (Appendix A, B, and C from Wooldridge, 2015), econometrics (Chapters 1 and 2 from Wooldridge, 2015) and mathematical notation (Appendix D and E from Wooldridge, 2015). Further reading on Limited Dependent Variables Models (Chapter 17 from Wooldridge, 2015) and Panel Data Models (Chapters 13 and 14 from Wooldridge, 2015) is optional but highly suggested. We will work primarily with the software package R. In order to get familiar with this software, please have a look at this introduction page for R.

Wooldridge, J. M. (2015). Introductory econometrics: A modern approach. Nelson Education.

Session Times

The course consists of theory and method sessions, divided in interactive plenary and breakout sessions for the presentation of theoretical aspects and practical sessions to provide exposure to analytical exercises, simulations, and econometric estimations. Practical sessions will include applications of the theory, computer analyses with actual data sets, and interpretations in practice.

Outline of the course in hours

The course will involve daily sessions in which sessions on theory (3 hours, mornings) are alternated with practical sessions (4 hours, afternoons). During the practical sessions, open ended questions will be formulated that need to be completed in order to pass the course.

Course schedule

Day	Morning	Afternoon	Evening
Day 1 24/8	9.00-10.00 Introduction	13.00-15.00 Utility Theory	18.30 Joint dinner
	10.00-12.00 Risk Theories	15.00-17.00 Simulation and optimisation under risk
Day 2 25/8	9.00-10.00 Behavioural economics	13.00-15.00 Risk attitudes
	11:00-12:00 An application of Prospect Theory	15.00-17.00 Behavioural economics
Day 3 26/8	9.00-10.30 Measures of risk	13.00-15.00 Risk measures
	10.30-12.00 Production risk	15.00-17.00 Production risk
Day 4 27/8	9:00-12:00 Risk Management	13.00-16.00 Risk Management
		16.00-17.00 Uptake of risk management tools	17.30 Informal drinks
Day 5 28/8	9.00-12.00 From risk management to resilience	13.30-16.00 Resilience measures
		16.00-17.00 Closing speach: State of the art & outlook

Course materials

Reading materials prepared by the authors will be sent to participants in advance of the course. Articles and other accompanying materials will be distributed during the course.

Requirements and ECTS

Before the start of the course, participants submit a short document (max 1 page) about their research with a particular focus on the role of risk therein (send to yann.demey@wur.nl before August 24, 2026). During the course, participants will answer open questions at the end of each day. Completion of these 5 assignments is required to be eligible for the 3 credits (according to ECTS).

Course fees

WGS PhDs with TSP	€ 300
a) All other PhD candidates b) Postdocs and staff of the above mentioned Graduate Schools	€ 640
All others	€ 900

Daily coffee breaks and lunch, and the welcome dinner + social drinks are included in the course fees.

Cancellation conditions:

Participants can cancel their registration free of charge 1 month before the course starts. A cancellation fee of 100% applies if a participant cancels his/her registration less than 1 month prior to the start of the course.

The organisers have the right to cancel the course no later than one month before the planned course start date in the case that the number of registrations does not reach the minimum.

The participants will be notified of any changes at their e-mail addresses.